Bitcoin’s weird betting-stock signal

Three blockchains raised over $1 billion combined after Congress passed the Genius Act… a signal that institutions were waiting for legal clarity before building. According to Bitwise’s Matt Hougan, Arc, Canton, and Tempo share a secret weapon: native privacy, a feature that separates them from Ethereum and Solana and addresses a real problem for businesses that can't broadcast every transaction. But the bigger story is corporate muscle entering the ring. Goldman Sachs, Stripe, Visa, and others are now competing alongside crypto natives. What happens when Wall Street brings execution and capital to a space that was built by college dropouts? Read more →

eToro (ETOR) reported Q1 crypto revenue of $2.15 billion, down 39% from $3.5 billion a year earlier, with trades falling 32% year-over-year. The Israeli brokerage spent $70 million acquiring wallet firm Zengo and launched crypto trading in New York, but the moves couldn't offset sector-wide weakness. As reported last week, Robinhood's crypto revenues dropped ~50%, and Coinbase’s total trading revenue dropped ~40%. eToro offset the decline with a surge in commodities trading, lifting net income 37% to $82 million and funded accounts 12% to over 4 million. Read more →

A sports betting ETF has been moving almost in lockstep with bitcoin over the past year, with a 0.91 correlation – suggesting a strong relationship between the two. The more interesting part is timing. The Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (BETZ) has repeatedly turned before bitcoin, peaking or bottoming weeks earlier in 2021, 2022, and 2025. Of course this does not mean BETZ is causing bitcoin’s moves and it is not some magic trading signal. But it may be a useful risk-appetite gauge. When betting stocks start breaking down or recovering, bitcoin has often followed, reinforcing the idea that BTC still trades more like a high-beta risk asset than a true safe haven. Read more →

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