BTC finally breaks $80,000
Bitcoin rose above $80,000 for the first time since January. Bitcoin is silently up ~20% since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, highlighting how digital assets have largely weathered the conflict and the oil-price spike it unleashed. Traders on Polymarket are now pricing a 46% chance BTC hits $85,000 in May. Although the price has since dropped back below $79k, a major psychological barrier was broken today.
Prediction Markets: Elite Few Profit, Most Lose
On Polymarket, just 0.1% of accounts (fewer than 2,000 traders) pocket 67% of all profits, according to a WSJ analysis of 1.6 million accounts. The rest lose money. Professional traders armed with algorithms, expensive data feeds, and high-frequency trading strategies systematically outpace casual bettors, who lack the speed and information edge to compete. More than 70% of Polymarket users end up in the red. Read more →
Clarity Act Reaches the Red Zone
Fresh momentum is building behind the long-stalled crypto market structure bill, after White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt shared a Punchbowl report on Friday suggesting lawmakers have reached a compromise. As a quick refresher, the fight is over whether stablecoin platforms can offer rewards that look like bank interest. The compromise would ban interest-like payouts, while still allowing rewards tied to actual crypto platform or network activity. Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott added to the optimism Friday, telling Fox Business the bill is “in the red zone” and that he hopes to have a bipartisan markup in May before moving it to the Senate floor. The market is starting to price in a better shot, too. Polymarket odds of the Clarity Act passing this year have jumped nearly 17% in just under a week. Read more →
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