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Kalshi's Khamenei death market blowback

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour defended the platform's controversial prediction market on Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei after he was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes.

Mar 2, 2026

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6 min read


Crypto funds see outflow streak end

Global crypto investment products pulled in ~$1 billion in net inflows last week, ending a five-week, ~$4 billion outflow streak. Bitcoin led the rebound with $881 million in inflows, while Ethereum posted its strongest week since mid-January. The general resilience and return to inflows are notable given ongoing geopolitical tensions, though both bitcoin and ether products remain in net outflow territory YTD. Read more →

Crypto’s margin trading hangover

One possible culprit behind the recent brutal crypto drawdown: too much leverage, everywhere. New research from Protos points out that U.S. margin debt hit a record $1.28 trillion in January – its ninth consecutive monthly increase and a 50% rise from April 2025. Meanwhile, crypto fell about 47% and shed $2 trillion in market value as money rotated into AI and precious metals. Overall, the takeaway isn’t that margin debt explains everything – but it’s a good frame for why this recent correction felt so violent. When positioning is crowded and leveraged, selloffs cascade, and rebounds struggle to stick. Read more →

Kalshi faces backlash over Khamenei death market

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour defended the platform's controversial prediction market on Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei after he was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes. The market, live since January with $50 million in vol., settled pre-death positions at the last-traded price and refunded post-death trades, though critics say Kalshi actively promoted what amounted to a death-betting contract.

The settlement was messy with ambiguous wording about "death" versus "confirmed reporting" allowed hours of trading after Khamenei's death. A former SEC official called it "a proxy market on assassination," and observers noted Kalshi had previously settled a Trump-inauguration market based on Jimmy Carter's death, raising questions about consistency. Read more →

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