Only 5% Remains

Harvard’s $57B endowment tripled its stake in BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) to 6.8M shares (~$442.8M as of Sept. 30), a 257% jump that makes Bitcoin the fund’s largest publicly disclosed position at just under 1% of assets. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said it is “super rare” for a university to invest in an ETF. He added that the stake is “as good a validation as an ETF can get.” Read more →

In a new essay, Arthur Hayes calls bitcoin “the free-market weathervane of global fiat liquidity.” Translation? Prices follow the money. He argues the recent drop below $90k reflects a tightening dollar backdrop after a brief boost from hedge-fund ETF trades and DATs trading at premiums, adding, “without these flows obscuring the negative liquidity picture, Bitcoin must fall to reflect the current short-term worry that dollar liquidity will contract or not grow as fast as the politicians promised.”

Near term, he thinks BTC could retest $80–$85k. And that the bull case will return if policy shifts from tightening to easing (QT ending, QE restarting). Read more →

Bitcoin crossed another major milestone yesterday as Antpool mined block 923,999, minting the 19,950,000th BTC and officially pushing total supply past 95%. In other words, 95% of all of the bitcoin that will ever exist has been already distributed to the market. New issuance is beginning to slow to a crawl: ~99% by 2035, with the final 1% not arriving until 2140. Let this be just a tiny reminder to zoom out and block out the price noise this month. The signal is that bitcoin’s future supply – unlike fiat – is scheduled, scarce, and shrinking. Read more →

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